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Survivor Caramoan – Season 26- Episode 14 Sunday May 12, 2013

So Cochran wins !! Does he deserve it ? Absolutely ! And my winners radar? Well it still worked pretty good. While last week I  predicted him winner anybody following my blog knows that I predicted Sherri Biethman the winner day one and despite the fact that she was always absolutely horrible at challenges she still ended up in the top 3 and nobody thought she deserved to be there. I disgree with them all because as I said many times here winning challenges is not the only way to get to the end in Survivor and season after season after season people like Sherri have made it to the end when people very strong in challenges. My radar predicted her winner not because she was older and not as physically strong but because day one I saw that she was very strategic and thats why she got to the end and players like Reynolds and Malcolm didn’t. As I’ve said before, they think winning challenges and finding idols is the only way you can win and those guys totally dump the social game and thats why they are gone and she Sherri Biethman was there.

So my radar still works pretty good. I think I just need to set up my scorer a little better. I think what I’ll do next season is score by tribe and not by the whole group.Had I done that I would have been dead on with Sherri winner of her tribe and then I could have also zeroed in on a survivor from the other tribe and I would have been Cochran. If you look at my score board from the beginning I did score him with one of the highest score on his tribe. t think what I’ll do next season is give “4” to the person who I think is best on his tribe and then even if that person doesn’t make the final 5 but does outlast his entire tribe then my scoring process can be more accurate. You can’t actually predict a winner in this game prior to “the merge” because you have to be in the running.

What do I think about Cochran? One of the greatest survivor player ever. More so then Boston Rob and Richard Hack. Why? Because he kept the target off of his back. He treated people nicely by never appearing to be threat. Boston Rob always appeared to be a threat socially and in challenges and acted as tribe leader and though he won, he made it with people constantly gunning for him. Great player but not better then Cochran. Cochran never took a lead role which kept the target off of himself. He always played for his tribe and then utimtaely found himself playing with people he could easily beat in the end (yes even Eddie because Eddie was over confident). And he did. Thats how you play survivor. Then after all the physically strong players are gone Cochran begins to win challenges playing against people easy to beat. I love this dude.

Reynolds never played for his tribe. And he never aligned with people who were weaker physically. Only with people who would be a challenge to him. So it goes without saying that those who were weaker gunned to tear apart his alliance which is why at the end him and Eddie had no alliance and a whole other tribe always working against them after the merge. And while I knew and said they’d never win because of their strategies I’m sure Malcolm and Reynolds they never understood while playing, what they did wrong that got them voted out. For me its a no- brainer.

So the final 5 were Eric, Eddie, Sherri Biethman,  Dawn and Cochran. Eric is sent home because he got sick which left 4 and then Eddie voted out at the last tribal council before the just before the jury council and rightfully so just as predicted her last week.. Why ? Because Eddie had no strategy at all, He just played with Reynold and they both thought being physical was the answer so for them no other strategy was needed.

Response to the Jury Trial and Reunion: Loved It. Just surprised at all the sore looser’s who played and thought Sherri shouldn’t be there. Not getting that she played a much better game then they did and because she was there and they weren’t. She didn’t cheat. She didn’t treat anybody bad and it got to the end. THAT IS A STRATEGY. Had they done it, THEY would be there and she wouldn’t. I hate sore losers and to see them still in sore looser mode at the end shows that none of them if offered a 2nd chance would win. Because they still don’t know how to play and make it t the end.

I was really surprised at Brenda. What she did last week was noble but its almost like she expects them to let her win against them because of that noble act. Especially her forcing Dawn to take out her false teeth. How cruel. Dawn went further and she didn’t. So now Brenda’s mad. Its makes no sense. They are in the game to win too. So they should take a threat to the end? Had she not been voted out she would have won and they all knew it ….so they voted her out. HELLO ? This is a game and nobody is playing so that Brenda can win. They want to win. I’m surprised at her attitude especially towards Dawn. And what gets me is …. just like the others. she sill doesn’t get it …. and like the others ….given a second chance she still wouldn’t win. Why? because she made herself a huge threat …. socially and physically. And you can’t win survivor that way.

Great season and I want Boston Rob’s book.

Below is the score board that I’ve had the entire season.

VOTES

Day One Rating from 5 to 1 of  Each Players (Reason for rating are below and may change)

B=Bikal Tribes Favorites     /  G = Gota Tribe-Fans  *=an original favorite

================================

Contestants Name                                                                              1st  Team   2nd  Team Note Rating
Laura Alexander wk4  G  3
Sherri Biethman  G
 G  4
Matt Bischoff  G  B  0
Hope Driskill  wk3  G  2
Eddie Fox  G  B  2
Julia Landauer  G  B  2
Allie Pohevitz  wk2  G
 2
Michael Snow  G  B  1
Shamar Thomas wk4  G  2
Reynold Toepfer  G  G  2
Andrea Boehlke  B  G*  3
Brandon Hantz  wk 5  B  2
Brenda Lowe  B  G*  0
Corinne Kaplan  B  B*  3
Dawn Meehan  B  B*  2
Erik Reichenbach  B  G*  2
Francesca Hogi   B  2
John Cochran  B  B*  3
 Phillip Sheppard  B  B*  3
  Malcolm Freberg  B  G*  0

 Ratings and their meanings (different from last season) 

5 playing a wise new kind of winning strategy
4 playing a winning strategy
3 playing a old non-winners strategy
2 playing a very poor strategy
1 playing no real strategy
0 haven’t seen enough to understand the strategy they are playing

Survivor Caramoan – Season 26- Episode 13 Wednesday May 8, 2013

Finally. Top 5 Brenda Lowe (top picture) booted off as I predicted last week and Sherri (3rd from the right) who I gave the highest score to at the beginning of the season is still in. Just off the top no one would predict that Sherri would go this far. Shes been awful in challenges. She’s older and the majority left is from another tribe. But early on I heard her reveal a winning strategy that people always forgot to use and thats …take someone to end with you that no one will let win. That clued me in that she’s a strategic player. Now she is the one thats left thats should be taken to the end. Everyone on the jury would say she was carried and doesn’t deserve to win and everybody else I think has at least one one challenge except her. She’d be the perfect person to take to the end because no one would vote for her to win and whoever is with her would. Everybody else on that team would be competition. She wouldn’t be.

Now more about Brenda Lowe. Not a good player. Good at challenges though and everybody likes her. And sacrificing seeing her family on the island so that the team could see there’s was the nicest thing anybody could do. So did she think that would make her tribe mates say “Wow! what a great lady, she should win ! ” That doesn’t make sense. They all want to win. Shes must have forgotten. THEY want to win and after doing that for all of her tribe members …..she would win. So the smartest move any of them could do was to make was to vote her off. She played played a physical game and with her heart but had no strategy. And thats why shes out.

Getting back to Sherri though. I’m generally about 95% correct in predicting who will voted off and who will win and my online record on this blog bears it out. This year I early off gave Sherri the highest score. but now I;m a bit concerned because shes awful in challenges and the jury picks the winner. Had she won a challenge or at least showed she was strong in challenges, or did something for the team, I think she’d stand a chance with the jury. And then there’s the other problem. The majority of the jury is from another tribe and would probably only vote for a member of their own tribe not hers. So I’m going to say the best she could only come in now with is …top 3., which is still good considering the circumstances

Anybody at this point that wants to win must immediately align withe Eddie (first from the left) and Sherry
Neither Eddie or Sherri will win and both can only make top 3 comes up with a big strategic plan. She is the most strategic player everybody else is always wondering. Shes knows

Okay My predictions :

Who do I think will win. Well like I said earlier I gave Sherri the highest scores but now because she has no alliances and has been strong in challenges she can only come in top 3. Eddie will be there with her.  Dawn and Cochran are targeting each other and no one is targeting Erik (except no brain Eddie). If nothing weird happens and Cochran is next Dawn will win. If Dawn is next Cochran will win

And remember I am always about 95% in my predictions.

VOTES

Day One Rating from 5 to 1 of  Each Players (Reason for rating are below and may change)

B=Bikal Tribes Favorites     /  G = Gota Tribe-Fans  *=an original favorite

================================

Contestants Name                                                                              1st  Team   2nd  Team Note Rating
Laura Alexander wk4  G  3
Sherri Biethman  G
 G  4
Matt Bischoff  G  B  0
Hope Driskill  wk3  G  2
Eddie Fox  G  B  2
Julia Landauer  G  B  2
Allie Pohevitz  wk2  G
 2
Michael Snow  G  B  1
Shamar Thomas wk4  G  2
Reynold Toepfer  G  G  2
Andrea Boehlke  B  G*  3
Brandon Hantz  wk 5  B  2
Brenda Lowe  B  G*  0
Corinne Kaplan  B  B*  3
Dawn Meehan  B  B*  2
Erik Reichenbach  B  G*  2
Francesca Hogi   B  2
John Cochran  B  B*  3
 Phillip Sheppard  B  B*  3
  Malcolm Freberg  B  G*  0

 Ratings and their meanings (different from last season) 

5 playing a wise new kind of winning strategy
4 playing a winning strategy
3 playing a old non-winners strategy
2 playing a very poor strategy
1 playing no real strategy
0 haven’t seen enough to understand the strategy they are playing

Survivor Caramoan – Season 26- Episode 9 -12 Wednesday May 1, 2013

I’m not surprised Andrea (above) was booted off  this week and have been saying since day one on this blog that Reynolds (above) , who was also booted off this week, would never  make it to the end  as well as Malcolm (below) who was booted off last week .  Its obvious none of these 3  study the game closely because they come in playing the same old loosing strategies of the past looser’s. Reynolds and Malcolms only strategy is win immunities and find idols. Nobody has ever won idol who plays like that. Thats if you check my  blog day 1  you’ll  see that I gave  Reynold a low score  and Malcolm (below) a low score day one and the game they both played confirms I the strategy that I always say are loosing strategies are indeed loosing strategies

People say Malcolm (above) almost won last time. The reason he didn’t then or this time is  because  his social game has always been pretty poor. He seems too be a nice guy  but just doesn’t know  how to take advantage of those who like him in the game.  Last season in the very beginning when there he voted against one of his closet allies who was in his pocket and then towards the end of the game (top 5) someone at that time who didn’t stand a chance against him, who  loyal was to him throughout the whole game, he treated her like crap. So she won instead. Loyalty is a great part of the game. Then this season as soon as those other two knuckle heads, Reynold and Eddie, came over from the  with targets on their backs, he aligns with them (LOL). Why? Because they are strong n challenges? Wow!!  Thats a good way to win. Align with somebody who can beat you.  These people don’t get it. You don’t do things like that and you’re not gonna come out and just play sports and ignore the social half and win. Survivor is not played like that. Reynolds did the exact same thing.

Reynolds aligned with those strong on his team and then treated the other tribe mates who would have been loyal, horribly and then couldn’t figure out why they wanted him off. (LOL) He’d say he was voted off because he was a threat. Thats because he doesn’t get it . They knew their tribe needed him, but him and his little alliance treated them horribly. Why would you want to keep someone on your team like that. It wasn’t because he was a threat it was because of the way he and Eddie treated them and thats exactly why Eddie still has the target now because of Reynolds. Its the same reason why all his girls got voted off. They think its the jock thing (LOL). What dunces !! And thats why the all the jocks are gone. (LOL). Thats the game all 3 of those guys came in playing

Andrea is another one. I’m just shaking my head. Don’t you know when EVERYBODY always sees you and hear you strategizing like that, its puts a target on your back, Goodness gracious. Its like you guys have never seen or looked a Survivor episode. Yes somebody is always going to be blindsided, but if you are playing right,  it doesn’t have to be you. What should she have done? Quit trying to be the leader. The leaders who boldly lead ALWAYS become the traget. Thats why somebody like Sherri who sucks at challenges is still there. Not because she sucks but because she keeps the target off of her back by trying to control everybody. If anybody looks at my score from day one you’ll see I scored her higher then all these guys, because she knows how to play. Phillip (below) is out because of the same reason.

Phillip you want to be a leader. You get the target. And had he not been so mean to folks someone would have taken him to the end instead of him trying to be leader and taking them. Why would they take him, because nobody on the jury would vote him as winner because of his obnoxiousness.. He should know he’s obnoxcious. Everybody has let him know. This season and last season.   That means whoever took him, would win. You might say well Michael wasn’t like that …why was he booted off so early?

Micheal (above) was booted because he had absolutely seemed like he played no strategy at all. He didn’t keep his alliances. He never knew what to do. He always waited to be told what to do and on top of that sucked at challenges. If you noticed day one I gave Michael one of the lowest score of anybody. To win survivor all you have to do is know what the  winning strategies are and what they are not and play them. They are all here on this site.

Okay My predictions :

Who do I think will win. Well like I said earlier I gave Sherri the highest scores

I’ll say Brenda and Dawn will be voted off. Because their alliances and strategies are bold

And the Final four will be: Eddie, Erik , Cochran and Sherrie

And if those are indeed the top 4: Cochran or Sherrie will win

VOTES

Day One Rating from 5 to 1 of  Each Players (Reason for rating are below and may change)

B=Bikal Tribes Favorites     /  G = Gota Tribe-Fans  *=an original favorite

================================

Contestants Name                                                                              1st  Team   2nd  Team Note Rating
Laura Alexander wk4  G  3
Sherri Biethman  G
 G  4
Matt Bischoff  G  B  0
Hope Driskill  wk3  G  2
Eddie Fox  G  B  2
Julia Landauer  G  B  2
Allie Pohevitz  wk2  G
 2
Michael Snow  G  B  1
Shamar Thomas wk4  G  2
Reynold Toepfer  G  G  2
Andrea Boehlke  B  G*  3
Brandon Hantz  wk 5  B  2
Brenda Lowe  B  G*  0
Corinne Kaplan  B  B*  3
Dawn Meehan  B  B*  2
Erik Reichenbach  B  G*  2
Francesca Hogi   B  2
John Cochran  B  B*  3
 Phillip Sheppard  B  B*  3
  Malcolm Freberg  B  G*  0

 Ratings and their meanings (different from last season) 

5 playing a wise new kind of winning strategy
4 playing a winning strategy
3 playing a old non-winners strategy
2 playing a very poor strategy
1 playing no real strategy
0 haven’t seen enough to understand the strategy they are playing

Survivor Caramoan – Season 26- Episode 8 – Wednesday April 3, 2013

Wow !! This weeks blind side of Corrine Kaplan (above) was one of the most amazing ever to me on Survivor. Not that there is something that I don’t like about Corrine. There is not. It was the strategy they used to do to do. A+Mazing !! Loved it ! My thoughts about Corrine: Not a very wise player. Why? Because she’s one of those players that plays TOO hard. What I mean is, she strategizes out loud. Lets everyone know whats shes doing except the person she is playing against which ALWAYS puts a target on your back. Shes not the only one theres who does. There are others and they will be gone.

Thats why I think, while Phillip is the most annoying player, he is indeed imparting some really good wisdom to those he plays with. Say what you will. Call him a dunce, but he did make top 3 and 70% of the people there now, won;t make it that far. He’s telling them not to broadcast what they are doing, but they are all doing it. I cannot imagine what it;d be like to play with Phillip. It’d be hard, but I’d try my best to stay in alliance with him, because at the end of the day whatever two are sitting him with then at the end, one of the other two for sure a guaranteed a win as nobody will vote for Phillip to win. He is too annoying. Is he a bully? Absolutely. And thats why he will never win

Having said that, I will add to the bully list, which already consist of Eddy and Reynold, now Malcolm is added. Not because he is a bully but he is now a part of the bully association and it happened just I said weeks ago. Reynolds and Eddy would hook up with Malcolm who are going to shoot to pull in all the other “cool” people. How high schoolish !! So what happens. The same thing that happens in high school. All the “not so cool people” have to align with each other to protect themselves because they know the “cool people” are going to gun for them. And so now you have . Sherry Dawn and Phillip”,
the oldest in the alliance” voting together with Cochran (the tribe nerd). And Angie pulled it together simply by telling Brenda and Eric the plan. Good for you Angie !!

What do I see coming ? Dawn, Phillip and Cochran trying to stick with the favorites, instead of trying to build a new alliance with Sherry. If they can do that and keep Eric , Angie and Brenda with them the’ll go much further and of they shoot for Malcolm, then they can shatter that whole alliance. Will they do it? Phillip wants to. He keeps saying he wants a big fish. But he is SO annoying I don’t think they will listen to him. At this point Malcolm is indeed controlling the game and this time if they don’t get him out early he will have Eddy and Reynold to continue to duke it with. No guaranteed win.

Does he deserve to win. No because he’s not using strategy, His only strategy is “win challenges and stick with the strong” instead of the wise. That type almost never wins. Thats why he didn’t win last season. He, like Reynold and Eddy, depend soley on their ability to win physical challenges. Brain is not strong enough to engage. Doesn’t what to think and stragetize a whole lot, just try to win challenges and find idols. Thats pretty much their game.

Michael deserves to go because he played against his own tribe member knowing that the other tribe is gunning t get them out. He’s just not good

What should happen is the tribe should get Malcolm and Reynolds to play their Idols.Are these people smart enough to do it? Only one thinking that way is Phillip and they won’t listen

Julia Landauer (above) was voted out last week and unfortunately she didn’t bind tight enough with her one tribe member left, Michael and so she had no leverage. And now neither does he as the one who fought for him was Corine is gone as well. Michael is a nice guy but doesn’t play well and just floats. I see no winning strategy being played there

Okay here he go

I said that Sherry and Phillip are twp of the wisest player there. For Sherry to win she’s got to secure a new alliance. Right now she has none. She had one but thanks to their loosing streek , that alliance got voted off. For Phillip to get further, he’s got to quit talking and bullying.

Okay below are predictions thus far.

The Person  I See Thus Far Best Playing  A Winners Strategy : Sherri Biethman

VOTES

Day One Rating from 5 to 1 of  Each Players (Reason for rating are below and may change)

B=Bikal Tribes Favorites     /  G = Gota Tribe-Fans  *=an original favorite

================================

Contestants Name                                                                              1st  Team   2nd  Team Note Rating
Laura Alexander wk4  G  3
Sherri Biethman  G
 G  4
Matt Bischoff  G  B  0
Hope Driskill  wk3  G  2
Eddie Fox  G  B  2
Julia Landauer  G  B  2
Allie Pohevitz  wk2  G
 2
Michael Snow  G  B  1
Shamar Thomas wk4  G  2
Reynold Toepfer  G  G  2
Andrea Boehlke  B  G*  3
Brandon Hantz  wk 5  B  2
Brenda Lowe  B  G*  0
Corinne Kaplan  B  B*  3
Dawn Meehan  B  B*  2
Erik Reichenbach  B  G*  2
Francesca Hogi   B  2
John Cochran  B  B*  3
 Phillip Sheppard  B  B*  3
  Malcolm Freberg  B  G*  0

 Ratings and their meanings (different from last season) 

5 playing a wise new kind of winning strategy
4 playing a winning strategy
3 playing a old non-winners strategy
2 playing a very poor strategy
1 playing no real strategy
0 haven’t seen enough to understand the strategy they are playing

Survivor Caramoan – Season 26 – Episode 6 – Wednesday March 20, 2013

Both Tribe (Gota and Bikal) are revamped this week and Matt Bischoff is torn apart  of his original alliance in the revamp and finds himself booted off by his new tribe mates who stick to their alliance who are all original Bikal members and favorites. Had it been some kind of new strategy I wouldn’t be so hard in what I;m about to say, however its an old proven strategy that always used and a good one might I add.  Its the old : “lets keep our tribe together and vote off anyone that might pull it part” strategy. Matt had the opportunity to use the strategy when Julia, from his original tribe asked him and Michael to vote with her to take Dawn out (one of the other original Bikal  members) but instead they voted for her to be out, someone from their own original tribe (thanks to Reynold who originally disenfranchised their old tribe and tried to pull her in ). All they had to do was try to pull in one other person, then they’d have a strong alliance and could vote the other team off. BUTTTTTTTT ………they did’nt, so Matt was rightfully voted off for not knowing how to play this game. Now Michael and Julia are only two and both have to scramble now to see if they can get the other team to keep them on and vote another off. BUTTTTTTTTT …. the old Bikal members are experienced and they know how to play … so that ain’t happening. I never rated Matt because I really couldn’t see him playing any real strategy all.

If it goes to who’s “the weakest link” (player) between the two left here from Gota, I’d say that would be Michael. Why ? Because Julia made an effort to keep their side strong, Michael didn’t and voted for her to be off and he made no effort to strengthen their already alliance. Matt said his strategy was to play a social game. Things is, you have to be more then just nice to win. You have got to be nice to the right people. Had Michael played some wise strategy going in, I’d give him a little more credit and I’d say differently, but he hasn’t. so I can’t see Michael going very far in this game. (I’m rating him for the first time this week) And by the way …did I hear Corine say Michael was gay when she said “I like  playing with the gays”.  Ummm … may be there are some mannerisms but I’m not 100% sure because gay people are usually pretty witty and play a much wiser game. Not sure here. Moving on.

As far as the new Gotta Tribe , it looks like Reynolds and and Eddies are back to that ole, “we;re the best looking tribe” game, thinking its all about strenght and good looks and just like before once again they’re are playing against their one original tribe member Sherrie instead of trying to strengthen whats left of their tribe to get to the end, like their new tribe members are doing. These guys don’t know how to play because if they did, they’d learn from their mistakes originally made with Sherrie and bring her in and try to flip another to save their tribe …. but nope, they’ve got to stay with the “pretty tribe” and just like before their new tribe members are going to pick them off one by one. They are two big air heads …. and of course they think the best strategy is to align with Malcolm. Why would you align with someone that could win against you in challenges. Those guys are just stu-PID. Like I said before … it’s obvious neither of them will win. They haven’t got  a clue how to play. They think they are still in high school. I hope when they look back they will realize their mistakes.

Okay here we go:

The votes from Bikal this week were for, Matt Julia and Dawn

Matt got votes from Phil, Dawn, Corrine & Cochran
Julia got votes from both Matt and Michael
Dawn got vote 1 vote from Julia.

Okay below are predictions thus far.

The Person  I See Thus Far Best Playing  A Winners Strategy : Sherri Biethman

VOTES

Day One Rating from 5 to 1 of  Each Players (Reason for rating are below and may change)

B=Bikal Tribes Favorites     /  G = Gota Tribe-Fans  *=an original favorite

================================

Contestants Name                                                                              1st  Team   2nd  Team Note Rating
Laura Alexander wk4  G  3
Sherri Biethman  G
 G  4
Matt Bischoff  G  B  0
Hope Driskill  wk3  G  2
Eddie Fox  G  B  2
Julia Landauer  G  B  2
Allie Pohevitz  wk2  G
 2
Michael Snow  G  B  1
Shamar Thomas wk4  G  2
Reynold Toepfer  G  G  2
Andrea Boehlke  B  G*  3
Brandon Hantz  wk 5  B  2
Brenda Lowe  B  G*  0
Corinne Kaplan  B  B*  3
Dawn Meehan  B  B*  2
Erik Reichenbach  B  G*  2
Francesca Hogi   B  2
John Cochran  B  B*  3
 Phillip Sheppard  B  B*  3
  Malcolm Freberg  B  G*  0

 Ratings and their meanings (different from last season) 

5 playing a wise new kind of winning strategy
4 playing a winning strategy
3 playing a old non-winners strategy
2 playing a very poor strategy
1 playing no real strategy
0 haven’t seen enough to understand the strategy they are playing

Survivor Caramoan – Season 26 – Episode 5 – Wednesday March 13, 2013

Well Brandon’s melt down was interesting on this weeks Survivor. I wrote in last weeks blog that he seemed unstable and that there was something going on. At any rate, I think it was his team mate Dawn who said, it was best for Brandon that he go and that makes it good for the tribe. It was very painful to see him turn against his whole tribe like that. He thought he was taking his own self out of the game but at the end of the day his tribe still determined his fate and THEY voted him out. Glad he left. He was flaky like that last season too. Bye. Brandon.

Brandon’s situation sort of dominated the whole show so there wasn’t a lot going on. Reynold found the Idol a second time and once again his team lost the reward challenge but because Tribe Bikal wanted to get rid of Brandon (who poured out their rice and all the other evil things he said he’d do) Gota Tribe was given the immunity idol and finally didn’t have to vote someone off.

Now if Julia, Sherri, Matt and Michael hope to make it to the end, they have got to vote for Reynold at their next council. If Matt or Reynolds want to make it far they have got to vote off Sherri who although is not strong in challenges is very good at strategizing. I said last week if she can get her alliance to vote off Reynold she’ll go far. Reynolds? Even if he votes off Sherri he’ll go further but he’ll never make it to the final 5. He thinks its all about winning challenges. He doesn’t have a clue about putting together a strategic alliance that can get him to the end. He thinks physical strenght alone will do it, and thats why he had no alliance after Allie and Hope. He just found the Idol and already instead of trying to form a new alliance , he’s still playing the same game that put him on the outs in the beginning. Reynolds your days are numbered.

Okay below are predictions thus far.

The Person  I See Thus Far Best Playing  A Winners Strategy : Sherri Biethman

VOTES

Day One Rating from 5 to 1 of  Each Players (Reason for rating are below and may change)

B=Bikal Tribes Favorites     /  G = Gota Tribe-Fans

================================

Contestants Name                                                                                !st  Team   2nd  Team Note Rating
Laura Alexander wk4  G  3
Sherri Biethman  G
 4
Matt Bischoff  G  0
Hope Driskill  wk3  G  2
Eddie Fox  G  2
Julia Landauer  G  2
Allie Pohevitz  wk2  G
 2
Michael Snow  G  0
Shamar Thomas wk4  G  2
Reynold Toepfer  G  2
Andrea Boehlke  B  3
Brandon Hantz  wk 5  B  2
Brenda Lowe  B  0
Corinne Kaplan  B  3
Dawn Meehan  B  2
Erik Reichenbach  B  2
Francesca Hogi   B  2
John Cochran  B  3
 Phillip Sheppard  B  3
  Malcolm Freberg  B  0

 Ratings and their meanings (different from last season) 

5 playing a wise new kind of winning strategy
4 playing a winning strategy
3 playing a old non-winners strategy
2 playing a very poor strategy
1 playing no real strategy
0 haven’t seen enough to understand the strategy they are playing

Survivor Caramoan – Season 26 – Episode 4 – Wednesday March 6, 2013

Laura’Alexander’s being voted out this week wasn’t what I would call a very strategic move thats going to help anybody win the million dollars, it was just one of those moves that any non-deep thinker would make. “She’s not good at challenges so lets get rid of her”. How is that strategic? Every team has weak players and sometimes the weaker player have aligned with other players who have helped get them all the way to the end. In Season 1, 71 year old, Rudy Beoch who was weak in many challenges made it to the top 3. A smart player knows winning Survivors is not simply about keeping people who are strong in challenges as almost 90% of the time the most physical players almost NEVER win because they think everybody is just enamored with their strength. Case in point. Malcolm in last seasons survivor. Yet I don’t care how many times this is proven from season to season, people continue to come in with these dumb notions thinking its ALL about physical strength and seeing the entire team vote Laura off simply because she not good at challenges makes me confident that Gota’s biggest weakness now is “lack of strategy”. Their thought is “physical strength is all we need” and the two biggest people duped into that dumb thinking is Reynold and Eddie. Its for certain neither of them will win. Whats worst is, now they are now trying to convince the whole team of that whole idea and of course if they make it to the merge the first people they are the going to align with are the young strong and beautiful which will force everybody else into an alliance against them … the same as it happened with their current team. Michael and Matt are not among the young strong and beautiful but they aligned with Reynolds and Matt against Laura who pulled in Julia (Sherri really had no choice) and neither of those 3 will be an alliance with Eddie and Reynold after the merge because thats not the kind of game those two are playing.. Am I saying the strong young and beautiful can’t win? No, they can win, but not playing the strength game only. Rob took Rupert one time to further himself and one time Phillip. Not somebody physical like himself. These guys on Gota obviously are not students of this game and definitely don’t play like winners have played. They play “jocks against nerds” like high school students play.

Sherri had the right idea in working to keep Shamar. But the strategy was fouled when Shamar injured his eye and had to go home. Keeping him was a very wise move, not because he was so good for the team and challenges (he wasn;t) but because if he got to the last 3, NOBODY would vote for him as a winner because he was so obnoxious and it would increase the chances of those winning who carried him. This team doesn’t get it. Now Sherri is on the outside of the new alliance between the new 5 and they have already gunned for her saying she is a weaker player. If she can’t convince them at their next tribal council to keep her in, then my prediction no one from team Gota will win the million dollars because they have no good strategy going. If she CAN re-convince her team to go back after Eddie and Reynold however, my prediction is Sherri will go all the way. At this point there is nothing Reynold and Eddie can do to win. They ignored the majority of their team and now they are only aligned with them because the people who they initially aligned with are gone. They are just not smart so they can’t win. If they vote Sherri out they’ll both probably go to the merge but they won’t win. Julia, Michael and Matt won’t win either because they are weak, easily influenced. The only way either of them will get there is if they keep Sherri. Will see.

Bikal Tribe – All I can say is as crazy as he seems. Phillip still seems to be playing the wisest game on their team. Brandon, on the other end … I don’t know whats going on with that guy. I really believe he has some mental issues. He continues to say things like “if I go, I’m going to go out with a bang”. I don’t know why he’s is saying that as there’s been no talk of getting him out. He keeps saying things like “I’m going to pee on the tribes rice” ???? Why ?? It won;t further him in the game. His tribe has done nothing to him. Why would he work against them. Some kind of serious paranoia going on. And he’s pulled Eric into his circle which will also put Eric on the outs of a strong alliance. It looks like whenever they go to tribal council one of them will be the next to go.

Okay below are predictions thus far.

The Person  I See Thus Far Best Playing  A Winners Strategy : Sherri Biethman

VOTES

Day One Rating from 5 to 1 of  Each Players (Reason for rating are below and may change)

B=Bikal Tribes Favorites     /  G = Gota Tribe-Fans

================================

Contestants Name                                                                                !st  Team   2nd  Team Note Rating
Laura Alexander  G  3
Sherri Biethman  G
 4
Matt Bischoff  G  0
Hope Driskill  G  2
Eddie Fox  G  2
Julia Landauer  G  2
Allie Pohevitz   G
 2
Michael Snow  G  0
Shamar Thomas  G  2
Reynold Toepfer  G  2
Andrea Boehlke  B  3
Brandon Hantz  B  2
Brenda Lowe  B  0
Corinne Kaplan  B  3
Dawn Meehan  B  2
Erik Reichenbach  B  2
Francesca Hogi   B  2
John Cochran  B  3
 Phillip Sheppard  B  3
  Malcolm Freberg  B  0

 Ratings and their meanings (different from last season) 

5 playing a wise new kind of winning strategy
4 playing a winning strategy
3 playing a old non-winners strategy
2 playing a very poor strategy
1 playing no real strategy
0 haven’t seen enough to understand the strategy they are playing

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